NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef0dd3552886673292a68b7c47552c40193a4f556a00b0fa4c8b4df286e03b49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Knicks, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Knicks | 56c | 17,206$9,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,575.86 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Pistons | 45c | 17,007$7,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,353.84 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…b408backed Knicks | 55c | 9,891$5,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,440 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Pistons | 44c | 8,577$3,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,763.18 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 44c | 6,356$2,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,576.22 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Knicks | 55c | 5,545$3,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,061.03 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pistons | 48c | 4,142$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.56 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…8e70backed Knicks | 50c | 4,062$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.74 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -12.4wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons | 50c | 3,855$1,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.74 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…0f02backed Knicks | 55c | 3,612$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 166 | 40.4%67 W · 99 L | -14.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 43c | 3,130$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks | 56c | 2,024$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.24 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pistons | 45c | 1,815$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.44 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Knicks | 56c | 1,427$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.22 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Knicks | 57c | 1,396$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pistons | 44c | 1,151$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.41 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pistons | 65c | 634.73$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.81 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Pistons | 55c | 617.62$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.84 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Pistons | 44c | 539.65$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.21 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Pistons | 45c | 433$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.57 | 587 | 40%235 W · 352 L | +24.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Knicks | 56c | 411.36$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Knicks | 51c | 362.54$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.44 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Knicks | 31c | 308.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pistons | 44c | 305.55$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.11 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pistons | 48c | 254.03$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Knicks | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Knicks | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Pistons | 43c | 162.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Knicks | 56c | 160.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 49c | 159.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Pistons | 45c | 124.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Pistons | 58c | 117.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Pistons | 46c | 103.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Knicks | 54c | 92.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed Pistons | 75c | 80.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Pistons | 51c | 79.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Pistons | 55c | 77.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…dc9bbacked Pistons | 46c | 65.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Knicks | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 469 | 40.3%189 W · 280 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Pistons | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Knicks | 46c | 48.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pistons | 52c | 45.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Knicks | 47c | 44.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Pistons | 46c | 43.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…ae06backed Knicks | 56c | 32.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Pistons | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Knicks | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pistons | 53c | 28.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Pistons | 46c | 24.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Knicks | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)this page
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Pistons vs. KnicksPistons won
- Pistons vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.