Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef41031e4d1e869d73a7d2f7ca6aa290003e09f801c3cdeb9613dcaa0b91782f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 1,351$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 1,214$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 64c | 907.64$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.07 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 865.26$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 698.13$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.07 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 516.17$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 473.05$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.02 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 412.15$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.62 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 42c | 284.17$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 77c | 256.94$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 17c | 246.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 199.1$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 27c | 187$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.51 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 181.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 176.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 40c | 162.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 160.16$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 143.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 141.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 138.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 73c | 134.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 60c | 131.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 111.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 108$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 78c | 107.03$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 38c | 105.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 97.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 35c | 90.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…7e53backed No | 65c | 86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 84.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 67c | 81.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 36c | 75.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 31c | 73.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 37c | 70.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 68.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 64.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 63c | 61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 36c | 56.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 52.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 51.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 70c | 47.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 47.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 40.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 40.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 39.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 28c | 38.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 31c | 38.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 34.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 29.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 28.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe183…3e16backed No | 53c | 28.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 28.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 27.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 44c | 24.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 24.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…172dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.