Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefae99dee93ef08d5ea3f129046ce329149199223292cb424ead468f9b988429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 32c | 5,956$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 58c | 1,550$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.95 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 71c | 924.31$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.97 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 67c | 842.56$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.84 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 72c | 675.81$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.94 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 72c | 448.92$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.88 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 75c | 370.71$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 20c | 285.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2b…90cfbacked Yes | 79c | 248.59$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 69c | 197$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 193.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 28c | 156.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 152.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 60c | 144.03$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 59c | 143.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 74c | 143.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…9e87backed Yes | 67c | 134.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Yes | 57c | 86.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 78c | 80.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 65.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 24c | 63.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 66c | 63.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…45febacked Yes | 63c | 58.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 53c | 56.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 54.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 52.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 47c | 51.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 50.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 57c | 47.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 79c | 45.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 75c | 41.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 40.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed Yes | 46c | 31.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…b096backed Yes | 61c | 28.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…e42cbacked Yes | 43c | 25.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 73c | 23.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 70c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 72c | 16.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c18…f53abacked Yes | 73c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 13.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.