Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf647fee91e68cedd70424242c6547492a77a64ac4510a457f636a177e4a84b32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7e0…5bb3backed Yes | 1c | 60,060$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 32c | 825.63$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.27 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 61c | 719.58$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 26c | 388.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 72c | 266.37$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.35 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 73c | 250.5$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 210.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 71c | 178.63$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 69c | 151.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 76c | 149.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.43 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 50c | 124.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 49c | 110.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 108$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked Yes | 10c | 104.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 29c | 86.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 27c | 84.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…ad99backed No | 29c | 80.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba1…538dbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…30eebacked No | 26c | 70.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 27c | 63.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 67c | 57.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2b…90cfbacked Yes | 68c | 56.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 47c | 55.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 52c | 50.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 29c | 49.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 40c | 46.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 62c | 38.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 66c | 38.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 32c | 38.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 61c | 36.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 35.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed Yes | 68c | 35.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 65c | 34.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 31.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…b90abacked Yes | 67c | 29.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 70c | 29.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 69c | 28.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 26.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 43c | 26.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed Yes | 70c | 25.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 65c | 24.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 45c | 24.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 54c | 22.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 76c | 21.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 64c | 19.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d5…7631backed Yes | 74c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 68c | 19.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 68c | 15.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.