MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefc7203f5947dea7b16958b074925938ec4b27f1c826897b1f1e09b8bbff2f7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Cardinals, White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $290,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $291,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9708…925bbacked Cardinals | 55c | 251,807$138,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113,507.51 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed White Sox | 45c | 101,041$45,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,468.54 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed White Sox | 45c | 66,666$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,999.7 | 173 | 51.4%89 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked White Sox | 45c | 49,683$22,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,357.26 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed White Sox | 46c | 16,575$7,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,624.5 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed White Sox | 33c | 7,944$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.09 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed White Sox | 42c | 3,863$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,627.48 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked White Sox | 46c | 2,676$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.08 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked White Sox | 45c | 2,505$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.35 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked White Sox | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Cardinals | 55c | 2,250$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.5 | 163 | 52.1%85 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked White Sox | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cardinals | 56c | 1,730$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.5 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed White Sox | 44c | 1,727$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.88 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked White Sox | 45c | 1,556$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.19 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed White Sox | 34c | 1,269$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked White Sox | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Cardinals | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Cardinals | 61c | 545.82$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.86 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed White Sox | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 223 | 12.1%27 W · 196 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed White Sox | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 255 | 11.8%30 W · 225 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Cardinals | 56c | 499.86$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.94 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eab…b026backed White Sox | 43c | 465.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed White Sox | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Cardinals | 51c | 414.32$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.48 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed White Sox | 48c | 369$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.12 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed Cardinals | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked White Sox | 26c | 362$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked White Sox | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…a1c2backed Cardinals | 58c | 344.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked White Sox | 11c | 337.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Cardinals | 44c | 298.27$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.03 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed White Sox | 4c | 252$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked White Sox | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed White Sox | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Cardinals | 56c | 227$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.88 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cardinals | 57c | 199.95$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed White Sox | 20c | 173.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 203 | 43.8%89 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed White Sox | 42c | 164.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 338 | 52.1%176 W · 162 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed White Sox | 41c | 114.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked White Sox | 42c | 97.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Cardinals | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed White Sox | 43c | 87.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0fe8backed White Sox | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed White Sox | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d3…a613backed White Sox | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…06a8backed White Sox | 43c | 60.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cardinals | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…b8f5backed Cardinals | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cardinals | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Cardinals | 55c | 59.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…214ebacked Cardinals | 55c | 50.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed White Sox | 44c | 50.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked White Sox | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…d086backed White Sox | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cardinals | 56c | 37.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Cardinals | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Cardinals | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,388 | 55.1%765 W · 623 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Cardinals | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked White Sox | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed White Sox | 44c | 30.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…bd09backed Cardinals | 59c | 30.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572c…c777backed White Sox | 42c | 29.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d75…41dcbacked Cardinals | 56c | 26.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed White Sox | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…4c0bbacked Cardinals | 55c | 21.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1187…cb53backed Cardinals | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…3c0ebacked Cardinals | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.