TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Francesco Maestrelli

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toby Samuelof Toby Samuel, Francesco Maestrelli
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,422

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,625 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae5c…5df7backed Toby Samuel67c12,229$8,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,087.537549.3%37 W · 38 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5698…4a0fbacked Francesco Maestrelli3c11,862$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.7273.7%1 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick7cpaid+34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Francesco Maestrelli15c5,884$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.769,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc535…9884backed Francesco Maestrelli17c4,665$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Francesco Maestrelli40c2,991$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.7611,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Francesco Maestrelli26c2,672$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.834,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Francesco Maestrelli3c2,386$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6099148.6%482 W · 509 L+43.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Francesco Maestrelli6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209757.9%77 W · 898 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd947…7451backed Toby Samuel66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6808960.7%54 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Toby Samuel78c1,504$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3313,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Toby Samuel75c1,250$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.1410749.5%53 W · 54 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f5…ab8cbacked Francesco Maestrelli4c1,216$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.651637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toby Samuel78c1,212$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.788,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae6a…de5ebacked Toby Samuel50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50025558%148 W · 107 L+20.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Francesco Maestrelli19c953.9$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.2474654.8%409 W · 337 L+46.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Toby Samuel48c833.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.3371725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd058…d8fcbacked Toby Samuel50c784.31$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.165048%24 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5a…96bcbacked Toby Samuel75c661.08$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.796157.4%35 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe839…0a9dbacked Francesco Maestrelli34c648$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.3241758.5%244 W · 173 L+24.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c0b…c814backed Francesco Maestrelli34c632$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8840659.9%243 W · 163 L+30.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9b2…9c8dbacked Francesco Maestrelli35c627.97$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7910927.5%30 W · 79 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e8…c60ebacked Francesco Maestrelli34c627$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.1839560.3%238 W · 157 L+28.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50ca…bfddbacked Toby Samuel50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30061341.8%256 W · 357 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbbe…ae0ebacked Francesco Maestrelli33c597.91$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.312123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Toby Samuel60c557.06$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.881,74548.1%840 W · 905 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Francesco Maestrelli2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10543.7%2 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-38.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdecf…2957backed Toby Samuel46c475.25$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.644124.4%10 W · 31 L-6.4wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-44%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Toby Samuel80c456$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.253946.9%253 W · 286 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b0…5294backed Francesco Maestrelli49c410$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.946650.2%234 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Francesco Maestrelli42c400$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1689,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Francesco Maestrelli24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9667131.3%210 W · 461 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Toby Samuel50c306$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15349942.3%211 W · 288 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Toby Samuel76c251.15$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3141748.2%201 W · 216 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…3ad7backed Francesco Maestrelli20c238.09$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6210342.7%44 W · 59 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Francesco Maestrelli33c237.36$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.461,07136.8%394 W · 677 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd3…1c3cbacked Francesco Maestrelli22c221.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.615424.1%13 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Francesco Maestrelli25c200.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Francesco Maestrelli21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51,90444.1%839 W · 1,065 L-16.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x293c…dcbabacked Toby Samuel55c199.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9937354.2%202 W · 171 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed Toby Samuel62c199.91$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9722341.3%92 W · 131 L-20.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Toby Samuel76c179$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.61,87853.2%1,000 W · 878 L+30.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Francesco Maestrelli18c172.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9853343%229 W · 304 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Toby Samuel63c170.68$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3465437.5%245 W · 409 L-33.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Toby Samuel78c159.57$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.112,44451.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Toby Samuel78c155.27$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8886050.1%431 W · 429 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Francesco Maestrelli34c154.82$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.643,71145.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c8…016abacked Toby Samuel79c153.9$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.337558.1%218 W · 157 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed Toby Samuel50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7512053.3%64 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d1…73edbacked Francesco Maestrelli37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010164.4%65 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Francesco Maestrelli41c132.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0724054.6%131 W · 109 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c2…2d18backed Toby Samuel51c127.88$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.615750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Francesco Maestrelli10c127.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.179238.3%303 W · 489 L-15.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Toby Samuel74c107.92$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.064,34152.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L+63.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf98d…384ebacked Toby Samuel64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366952.2%36 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Francesco Maestrelli50c99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51,28965.2%841 W · 448 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea6…b795backed Toby Samuel62c97.41$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6457841%237 W · 341 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Toby Samuel79c92.28$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.181,00857.7%582 W · 426 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Francesco Maestrelli14c92.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.322,88739.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L-84.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Toby Samuel73c82.69$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.131,82446.5%849 W · 975 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Toby Samuel73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.63,98745.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d8…da3bbacked Francesco Maestrelli39c75.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3038148.3%184 W · 197 L+28.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+13.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4abd…5a5cbacked Francesco Maestrelli34c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8541758.5%244 W · 173 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…9256backed Toby Samuel69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4625848.4%125 W · 133 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Toby Samuel77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1659347.4%281 W · 312 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Francesco Maestrelli30c67.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.236,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Toby Samuel79c63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.231,87759.4%1,115 W · 762 L+8.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7373…fc38backed Francesco Maestrelli24c59.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.15836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3679…492ebacked Toby Samuel56c56.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8231053.5%166 W · 144 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Toby Samuel75c55.55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6653847%253 W · 285 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Toby Samuel67c55.24$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.051,07654.8%590 W · 486 L+14.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Francesco Maestrelli20c53.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.621,31439%512 W · 802 L-23.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68b6…99b4backed Francesco Maestrelli40c44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.614653.4%78 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Toby Samuel77c41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.286,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd32d…23b4backed Francesco Maestrelli36c38.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6810252%53 W · 49 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1e…cbfbbacked Francesco Maestrelli38c38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4415149%74 W · 77 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3e…cd83backed Toby Samuel55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2545553%241 W · 214 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf4…488fbacked Toby Samuel49c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.75683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick60cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Toby Samuel80c22.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6113260.6%80 W · 52 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd13e…ed01backed Toby Samuel68c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0434854.3%189 W · 159 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb207…c751backed Toby Samuel80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414496.5%139 W · 5 L+36.7wins+0.25per pick71cpaid+34.3%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Toby Samuel60c17.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.044,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cce…4b52backed Toby Samuel62c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4617688.6%156 W · 20 L+40.5wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+33.2%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.