NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0c862a5ed334560fe5ced57cb9cc669ba5ede3b01c22114f9e3d2ea18491168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Lakers | 59c | 4,063$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.83 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 41c | 4,002$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.74 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 3,000$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.14 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Grizzlies | 53c | 2,699$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.65 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 788.32$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers | 25c | 636.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.39 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked Lakers | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Lakers | 56c | 499.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lakers | 47c | 466.59$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.29 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Grizzlies | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 36c | 341.91$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.29 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Grizzlies | 44c | 213.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Lakers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…a714backed Lakers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Lakers | 59c | 125$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Lakers | 31c | 112.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Lakers | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Lakers | 54c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…50d3backed Lakers | 22c | 68.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Lakers | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Lakers | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lakers | 34c | 59.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Grizzlies | 41c | 57.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…8059backed Lakers | 37c | 56.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Grizzlies | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Lakers | 49c | 44.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Lakers | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies | 44c | 42.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Lakers | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…f54fbacked Lakers | 60c | 41.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Lakers | 56c | 38.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Grizzlies | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Lakers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. LakersLakers won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Assists Over 2.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.