NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac28420b87b2768289e8408a2b4998990eb3fedb656f5cf51254cc8737e34192
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 7,798$3,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,867.77 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 3,831$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 2,720$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.64 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 2,665$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.32 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…8e43backed Under | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…db7dbacked Over | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 52c | 2,054$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.3 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.09 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 1,095$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.55 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 1,050$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 959.08$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.13 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Under | 58c | 580$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.6 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 50c | 565.72$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.19 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 48c | 427.88$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 389.03$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 301.61$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e6…ba63backed Over | 47c | 244$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 49c | 230.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.56 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 193$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 142.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 58c | 101.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…e0cabacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Over | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Under | 52c | 94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 37c | 67.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 51c | 47.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 27.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Under | 50c | 27.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 62c | 26.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Under | 60c | 24.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 48c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 23.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7936…cd7abacked Under | 74c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. LakersLakers won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Assists Over 2.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.