TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Lakers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,129 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies46c3,119$1,420 inLost-$1,419.779,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Lakers52c3,000$1,560 inWon+$1,44025945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Grizzlies48c3,000$1,440 inLost-$1,44042648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Lakers52c2,776$1,433 inWon+$1,342.6448957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Lakers55c2,216$1,215 inWon+$1,001.2740451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Grizzlies47c1,914$900 inLost-$899.582,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Lakers53c1,800$954 inWon+$84613355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies44c1,668$734 inLost-$733.656,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers20c1,591$323 inWon+$1,268.758,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Lakers53c550$292 inWon+$258.58739.1%34 W · 53 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Lakers26c159.82$41 inWon+$118.411,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac7…597ebacked Lakers56c129.63$73 inWon+$56.486552.3%34 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Lakers26c117.38$30 inWon+$87.3833730.3%102 W · 235 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lakers53c98$52 inWon+$46.063,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Lakers53c94.34$50 inWon+$44.3449852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc57a…fe9fbacked Lakers53c56.6$30 inWon+$26.613250%66 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Grizzlies43c55.63$24 inLost-$23.922,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca0…a4fcbacked Grizzlies78c49.9$39 inLost-$38.925151%26 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x554f…afb4backed Lakers22c46.29$10 inWon+$36.121225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x058a…ed5cbacked Grizzlies45c45$20 inLost-$20.255040%20 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb83f…b17ebacked Lakers57c43.86$25 inWon+$18.864557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9460…b127backed Lakers46c40.5$19 inWon+$21.68650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+125.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeec…93f9backed Grizzlies74c32.33$24 inLost-$24.08520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x678d…ee46backed Lakers56c30.36$17 inWon+$13.36850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Grizzlies45c29$13 inLost-$13.0537949.3%187 W · 192 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.