World Politics · resolved market
Will Pietro Mastropasqua win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf11326a1d19fe5a56a465b1dcea6f24e3c9ce15d144bbce0fa0e85e1d77747ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 48c | 1,419$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.32 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,282$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.08 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 42c | 1,281$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.9 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed No | 56c | 1,170$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.49 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 49c | 808.24$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.91 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 58c | 398$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.16 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 44c | 238$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4267…3e8ebacked Yes | 50c | 201.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 178$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 52c | 163.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Yes | 44c | 113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 40c | 110.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d5…211ebacked Yes | 45c | 65.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 57c | 59.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed Yes | 45c | 52.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…33dabacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…c7debacked Yes | 52c | 39.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -71%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…6b14backed No | 56c | 38.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…7ea4backed No | 56c | 27.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…03a7backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…23a0backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pietro Mastropasqua win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election?this page
- Will Manuel Flavio Minervini win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.