World Politics · resolved market
Will Manuel Flavio Minervini win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b950653db3b531ec8f11f74e97a2d547ec0ede161967492c0a942b760bb11fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 49c | 337.08$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.65 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 57c | 280.86$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 198.72$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 60c | 192.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed No | 43c | 177.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 149.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 60c | 137$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 55c | 128$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 122$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 58c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 50c | 74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…27e8backed Yes | 56c | 66.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 54c | 66.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 43c | 64.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 57.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…2168backed No | 44c | 56.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…752abacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…03a7backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Yes | 76c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manuel Flavio Minervini win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election?this page
- Will Pietro Mastropasqua win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.