TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ex-RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-RUSTECof WW Team, ex-RUSTEC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,700 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x490a…1d4bbacked ex-RUSTEC33c8,911$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,954.0629235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc653…300dbacked WW Team65c3,097$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.683246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed WW Team67c2,937$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.161,04153.1%553 W · 488 L+63.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked WW Team50c2,400$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20044551.2%228 W · 217 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed ex-RUSTEC28c2,300$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.9637346.1%172 W · 201 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986b…bdc6backed ex-RUSTEC79c2,268$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.223290.6%29 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick76cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61a8…1ad4backed ex-RUSTEC33c1,774$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.053727%10 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-RUSTEC39c1,593$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.993,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked WW Team28c1,593$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.2818743.9%82 W · 105 L-10.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked WW Team50c1,378$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.8736847.6%175 W · 193 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bb…bd8ebacked ex-RUSTEC49c1,242$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.220436.8%75 W · 129 L-15.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07e8…faaebacked WW Team54c1,006$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.3317650.6%89 W · 87 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed WW Team66c900$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.933146.5%154 W · 177 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked WW Team51c728.54$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.252,67247.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed WW Team62c637.32$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.581,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed WW Team54c572.08$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.952,45644.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L-67.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked WW Team72c540.43$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.437,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed WW Team63c511.34$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.4842854.9%235 W · 193 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb454…a98cbacked ex-RUSTEC51c488.05$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.155940.7%24 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x127e…3dd8backed ex-RUSTEC65c432.3$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.32268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed WW Team62c420.77$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.991,11054.2%602 W · 508 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked WW Team73c414$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.421,89041.9%791 W · 1,099 L-71.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked ex-RUSTEC23c394.02$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.415337.3%57 W · 96 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66da…69b0backed ex-RUSTEC66c371.95$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.7428042.5%119 W · 161 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed ex-RUSTEC44c357.73$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.338560%51 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed ex-RUSTEC34c317.63$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.82,47424.7%611 W · 1,863 L-316.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked WW Team65c309.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20033557.3%192 W · 143 L-11.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked WW Team60c303.76$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.144,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d79…9e95backed WW Team66c300.43$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2816349.1%80 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed ex-RUSTEC44c290.91$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.9134547.5%164 W · 181 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked ex-RUSTEC42c261.12$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9881744.7%365 W · 452 L-2.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ce…11a2backed ex-RUSTEC45c254.67$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.674065%26 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed ex-RUSTEC17c250$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.540247.8%192 W · 210 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed ex-RUSTEC24c250$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5549952.3%261 W · 238 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a91…0d48backed WW Team54c232.83$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked WW Team50c221.77$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.943,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed WW Team44c220.68$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.092,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked WW Team50c213.47$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.553,26745.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L-85.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1efb…dd8abacked WW Team64c211.16$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.467946.8%37 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked WW Team69c204.08$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.8225342.3%107 W · 146 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed WW Team20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked ex-RUSTEC43c198.97$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.672,14347.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L-61.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed WW Team64c192$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.282,55441.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L-116.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked ex-RUSTEC55c191.51$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.031,63243.2%705 W · 927 L-32.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ex-RUSTEC44c171$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.032,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked ex-RUSTEC34c165.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.061,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed ex-RUSTEC31c153.48$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5924260.3%146 W · 96 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ex-RUSTEC32c153.25$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.65,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed WW Team20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3026544.2%117 W · 148 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed WW Team54c143.27$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7835848%172 W · 186 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed ex-RUSTEC37c139.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3872645.6%331 W · 395 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7498…8b4dbacked WW Team72c138.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4281…1a5abacked ex-RUSTEC48c126.42$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.12548%12 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5be5…4465backed WW Team52c112$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.241844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-RUSTEC48c112$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.245,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa56e…1c76backed WW Team47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked ex-RUSTEC34c106.1$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.92,53034.6%876 W · 1,654 L-193.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed ex-RUSTEC49c101.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1816641%68 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed WW Team70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7043175.9%327 W · 104 L+24.8wins+0.06per pick70cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed ex-RUSTEC39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6122452.2%117 W · 107 L+20.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c47…2e55backed WW Team50c99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.524447.1%115 W · 129 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked ex-RUSTEC50c93.42$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7166162.6%414 W · 247 L+29.2wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9929…15a8backed WW Team51c91.46$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.417163.7%109 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa936…8ee6backed ex-RUSTEC16c91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1357…4829backed WW Team55c84.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.748549.4%42 W · 43 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked WW Team48c82.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.478258.5%48 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff77…b6b4backed ex-RUSTEC37c78.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.361540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked WW Team60c78$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.682,19543.1%946 W · 1,249 L-68.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed WW Team54c70.37$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3819849.5%98 W · 100 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c79…ddf6backed WW Team55c67.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.998664%55 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1407…e56cbacked ex-RUSTEC69c65.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.452532%8 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd2…0985backed WW Team20c65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135151%26 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed WW Team69c64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9240666.3%269 W · 137 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…c9f4backed ex-RUSTEC44c60.56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7524756.7%140 W · 107 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…5e63backed ex-RUSTEC21c56.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.085125.5%13 W · 38 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked WW Team60c54.73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.072,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked WW Team72c51.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5823256.5%131 W · 101 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked WW Team50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519150.3%96 W · 95 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked WW Team62c49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3828637.4%107 W · 179 L-19.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10d7…bbf6backed WW Team50c45.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4619468.6%133 W · 61 L+25.9wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9135…8d9cbacked WW Team41c44.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.168638.4%33 W · 53 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f90…4af9backed WW Team58c41.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked WW Team55c39.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9539338.2%150 W · 243 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x304f…af95backed WW Team64c38.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524256.6%137 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa658…f93ebacked WW Team79c38.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010064%64 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07e4…186ebacked WW Team66c34.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6334462.2%214 W · 130 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cae…3342backed ex-RUSTEC59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.94872.9%35 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6628…3d33backed WW Team59c33.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5343174%319 W · 112 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca5f…41f5backed WW Team62c32.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1111252.7%59 W · 53 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f4…9626backed WW Team70c32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.337451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf194…b52dbacked ex-RUSTEC53c31.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5807…74dcbacked WW Team65c29.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1914661.6%90 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed ex-RUSTEC62c27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.352245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked WW Team62c26.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.421,31551.1%672 W · 643 L-99.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed WW Team56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452649%258 W · 268 L-27.8wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed ex-RUSTEC45c23.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6626648.5%129 W · 137 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8e…8e0dbacked WW Team63c21.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4250458.5%295 W · 209 L-1.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed WW Team68c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.216745.5%76 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed WW Team72c20.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6222449.6%111 W · 113 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed WW Team72c19.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3241853.6%224 W · 194 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.