Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf149cad218861645a4609cde58479f3247c6f4cdb43b9c581bb3deee8ea5da83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 2,044$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 892.04$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.34 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 800$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.82 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 592.23$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 560$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.76 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 416.27$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 59c | 347$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.27 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 298.74$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 293.54$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 283$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 240$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 35c | 213.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 196$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 191.56$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 179.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 174.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 153.83$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 40c | 143.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 123.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 119.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 42c | 117.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 109.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 100.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 96.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 95.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 53c | 93.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 58c | 88.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 78.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 69.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 63.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 73c | 63.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 62.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 37c | 61.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 47c | 61.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 60c | 61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 60.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 44c | 58.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 62c | 58.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 53.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 51.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 47.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 38c | 39.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 38.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 79c | 35.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 57c | 34.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 32.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 32.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6370…f483backed Yes | 39c | 32.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 61c | 31.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…6e1cbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 24.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 66c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.