Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc36afe24c040dc2392fe275d56e8c5c4df48b77ea65217281cc5b968865fc6f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 1,102$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.13 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 944.01$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 796.17$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 735.35$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 60c | 675.39$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.71 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 74c | 491.31$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 60c | 397.38$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.04 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 36c | 366.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 44c | 338.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 330.88$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 306.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.32 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 31c | 282.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 41c | 266.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.69 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 257.11$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 252.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.32 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 244.25$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 243.03$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 242.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 242.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 38c | 228.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 63c | 218$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 50c | 215.79$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 206.66$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.41 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 174.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 47c | 166.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 70c | 166.48$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 155$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 142$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 141.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 46c | 136.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 134.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 133$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 78c | 127.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 38c | 119.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 23c | 116.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 114.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 46c | 114.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 80c | 101.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 56c | 99.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 98.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 43c | 97.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…1b6ebacked No | 64c | 97.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 96.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 67c | 93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 89.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 86.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 60c | 84.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 34c | 82.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 40c | 70.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 36c | 69.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 51c | 69.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 74c | 67.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 72c | 66.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 73c | 64.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 62.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 41c | 58.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 57.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 35c | 56.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 41c | 56.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 78c | 54.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 53.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 56c | 52.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 65c | 50.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 47.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 40c | 42.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 42c | 41.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 76c | 38.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed No | 63c | 38.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked No | 34c | 35.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 61c | 34.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 66c | 34.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 58c | 33.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 31.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 54c | 31.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 30.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 36c | 28.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 67c | 28.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 51c | 27.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 64c | 26.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 26.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 65c | 23.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.