TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,635 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes39c1,102$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.131,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No42c944.01$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.442,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No38c796.17$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.514,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c735.35$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.3110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes60c675.39$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.7115527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes74c491.31$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.514,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No60c397.38$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.0442762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No36c366.4$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.283,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked No44c338.43$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c330.88$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.235,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes33c306.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.3264446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No31c282.7$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8363323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes41c266.69$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.6931943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No65c257.11$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.014,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes38c252.92$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.3281558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No63c244.25$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.154,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes77c243.03$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.126,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No25c242.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.24,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c242.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.161,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes38c228.55$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.4315040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No63c218$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.751,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No50c215.79$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.961,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No64c206.66$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.411,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c174.49$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.84,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No47c166.81$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.179947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes70c166.48$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6137056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes36c155$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.621,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c142$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.213,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No23c141.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes46c136.98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3723241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes31c134.96$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.751,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c133$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.674,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed Yes78c127.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6623560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes38c119.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.767633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No23c116.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.81,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No62c114.93$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.082,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No46c114.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9771057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes80c101.33$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6349547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6097152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6090555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8792backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6018045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes56c99.97$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9929443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes30c98.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2846240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes43c97.75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3711927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ef…1b6ebacked No64c97.23$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c96.31$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.23,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No67c93$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3154853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes36c89.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.025,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No61c87$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.294,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No67c86.41$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.13,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed No60c84.4$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6426441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes34c82.55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5746743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes40c70.31$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1913838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes36c69.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4562555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes51c69.26$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.673,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes74c67.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1214222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No72c66.59$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9421370.9%151 W · 62 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes31c65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.151,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked No73c64.05$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7610447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No64c62.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.051,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes42c59.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.524228.6%12 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…896ebacked Yes41c58.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.81540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c57.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.879,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes35c56.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.351,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Yes41c56.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.016651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes78c54.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7566758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c53.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.224,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed Yes56c52.3$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.011,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No65c50.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8623666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0513636%49 W · 87 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3112941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No72c48.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3545675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes29c47.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.941,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes28c46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.123,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No40c42.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.976059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes42c41.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.812934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.82,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.21,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f01…548cbacked Yes76c38.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.282152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7103…c469backed No63c38.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.182152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked No34c35.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.077540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes61c34.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6882268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b8d…f707backed No66c34.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.713056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes58c33.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2135264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes35c31.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.573,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed Yes54c31.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5117020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes74c30.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9265749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.881855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed No55c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.519663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed Yes36c28.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4733654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes67c28.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.516647%31 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes51c27.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4143559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No64c26.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8542547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No69c26.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.971,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No65c23.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2228360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.