Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf21b65995b61395ffd6f70010aff190f3764833c6a5b154d8278159d2215ae8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 382.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 270.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 197$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 165.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 70c | 161.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 159.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 59c | 158.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 143.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 60c | 128.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 119.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 34c | 112.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 112.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 107.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 106.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 50c | 99.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 97.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed Yes | 35c | 92.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 91.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 62c | 84.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 80.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 32c | 79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 55c | 77.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 74.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 40c | 71.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 71.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 46c | 67.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 65.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 55c | 62.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 61.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 38c | 54.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 51.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 49.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 44.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 43.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…53aebacked No | 53c | 37.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 42c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 36.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 41c | 36.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 59c | 35.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…e6c9backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 34.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 61c | 32.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 53c | 31.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 59c | 29.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 27.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 38c | 26.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 25.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 49c | 23.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 60c | 22.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 67c | 20.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…1258backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 58c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 62c | 19.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.