Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf233378b47ce0347bc19843fedf7ca70352942702777db37c0424c71e255cffa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.98 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…6a93backed Over | 52c | 1,400$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…cfefbacked Over | 51c | 869.95$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.09 | 293 | 38.6%113 W · 180 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…bad1backed Over | 51c | 652.75$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.85 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 50c | 642.91$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.57 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…819abacked Over | 52c | 625$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 376 | 40.2%151 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Over | 50c | 454.24$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.12 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Under | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 479 | 33.6%161 W · 318 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Over | 57c | 245.06$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 421 | 49.2%207 W · 214 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…21a7backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…0270backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 266 | 39.5%105 W · 161 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 493 | 46.5%229 W · 264 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…91c6backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 52c | 183.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Over | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 230 | 57.8%133 W · 97 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Over | 51c | 54.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Over | 50c | 52.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 48c | 50.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 45c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 217 | 47%102 W · 115 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…c143backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 317 | 50.8%161 W · 156 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…8b25backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 50c | 23.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Under | 50c | 23.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 411 | 56.7%233 W · 178 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?T1 won
- First Blood in Game 2?T1 won
- First Blood in Game 3?T1 won
- Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?No won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)T1 won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)T1 won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-InT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 WinnerT1 won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.