TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of T1, Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$933,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,055,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $933,737 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 492 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Karmine Corp15c66,444$10,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,218.91,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf949…3220backed T177c57,553$44,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,237.168951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe70…d981backed Karmine Corp25c39,708$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Karmine Corp24c27,416$6,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,468.571,15849.2%570 W · 588 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Karmine Corp23c25,000$5,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,749.991,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Karmine Corp26c15,106$3,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,958.011,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Karmine Corp12c14,055$1,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.6114056.4%79 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed Karmine Corp11c11,844$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.2844120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed T178c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20032650.3%164 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked Karmine Corp23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30049541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x622a…2b59backed Karmine Corp1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100352.9%1 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid+185.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked T177c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.9990348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed Karmine Corp14c9,996$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.8331644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Karmine Corp23c8,809$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.1385942.7%367 W · 492 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Karmine Corp18c8,735$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.982,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Karmine Corp23c8,698$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.141,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked T174c8,344$6,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,206.6167760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Karmine Corp22c7,915$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.561,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Karmine Corp13c7,854$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.291,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8c2f…d8c2backed Karmine Corp24c7,826$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.53348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…ed95backed T179c7,693$6,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,594.688259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked T177c7,500$5,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.992,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Karmine Corp24c7,200$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.9819239.1%75 W · 117 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Karmine Corp27c7,000$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.9954555.2%301 W · 244 L+24.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f67…a203backed Karmine Corp12c6,742$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8006342.9%27 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed T176c6,579$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.9516258%94 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Karmine Corp21c6,556$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40030854.5%168 W · 140 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa57d…701fbacked T169c6,505$4,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.512446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…21d7backed Karmine Corp13c6,389$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.435932.2%19 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked Karmine Corp24c6,213$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.7617954.7%98 W · 81 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Karmine Corp17c5,980$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.281,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Karmine Corp23c5,733$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.9286136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed T177c5,678$4,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.941,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Karmine Corp8c5,657$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.5386943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Karmine Corp23c5,652$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30058457.7%337 W · 247 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf62e…eda7backed T176c5,374$4,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.161172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed Karmine Corp17c5,150$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.4348834%166 W · 322 L+25.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed T177c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1501,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Karmine Corp23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1503250%16 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked T175c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25026856%150 W · 118 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x475b…02b4backed Karmine Corp11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Karmine Corp14c4,482$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.5389746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed T175c4,193$3,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.9328959.2%171 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Karmine Corp26c4,120$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.0290350.8%459 W · 444 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed T179c4,068$3,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.2146464%297 W · 167 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Karmine Corp25c4,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98016155.3%89 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e3a…130ebacked Karmine Corp12c4,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47021623.6%51 W · 165 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ca…f644backed Karmine Corp23c3,913$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90024858.1%144 W · 104 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed T178c3,776$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.7210051%51 W · 49 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked T177c3,611$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.0799756.6%564 W · 433 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed Karmine Corp22c3,510$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.179144%40 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Karmine Corp23c3,500$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.7230945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Karmine Corp35c3,424$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2008949.4%44 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked T175c3,333$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.3349451.8%256 W · 238 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Karmine Corp25c3,200$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010939.4%43 W · 66 L-13.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x479b…cdb1backed Karmine Corp25c3,200$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004637%17 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd14c…5fbdbacked Karmine Corp14c3,187$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.0411635.3%41 W · 75 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Karmine Corp24c3,086$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.6447933.2%159 W · 320 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Karmine Corp23c3,074$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7071,22358.1%710 W · 513 L+43.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13b8…d1afbacked Karmine Corp9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x835c…a5eebacked Karmine Corp33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.992544%11 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75a5…a5bfbacked T177c2,861$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.461435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccd7…f491backed Karmine Corp17c2,857$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.4342246.4%196 W · 226 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Karmine Corp24c2,753$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.6947347.4%224 W · 249 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked T178c2,564$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.152365%340 W · 183 L-16.3wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46a8…cde8backed T174c2,560$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.66755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed T179c2,513$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.861154.7%334 W · 277 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked T176c2,500$1,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6051,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb53…7b74backed T175c2,310$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.3748763.2%308 W · 179 L+20.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed T178c2,271$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.6259854.2%324 W · 274 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Karmine Corp22c2,270$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.532045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked T175c2,178$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.832,33039.4%919 W · 1,411 L-83.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked T176c2,143$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.2430357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3090…be73backed T174c2,094$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.5814851.4%76 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed T172c2,089$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.293,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c39…36c6backed Karmine Corp7c2,070$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1512119.8%24 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Karmine Corp13c2,035$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.041,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Karmine Corp11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22090443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Karmine Corp1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Karmine Corp23c2,000$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45521049.5%104 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Karmine Corp8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16094237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Karmine Corp9c2,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17042924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed Karmine Corp22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.9833945.4%154 W · 185 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Karmine Corp13c1,895$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.3681443.5%354 W · 460 L+30.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Karmine Corp23c1,817$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.8719748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6a93backed Karmine Corp22c1,750$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3852532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Karmine Corp15c1,711$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.581,05650.4%532 W · 524 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Karmine Corp33c1,666$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.565047.4%308 W · 342 L+24.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed Karmine Corp33c1,600$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5286344.4%28 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Karmine Corp22c1,591$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9916048.1%77 W · 83 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed T178c1,542$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.6959459.1%351 W · 243 L+26.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c82…5a52backed T178c1,519$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.6831661.1%193 W · 123 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked T176c1,500$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36535159.5%209 W · 142 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed T174c1,497$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.1331838.1%121 W · 197 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Karmine Corp16c1,493$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7112341.5%51 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Karmine Corp14c1,493$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8967853.4%362 W · 316 L+25.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked T167c1,369$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.6638662.2%240 W · 146 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed T175c1,350$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.886241.9%26 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Karmine Corp13c1,346$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.631,93942.2%819 W · 1,120 L-46.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked T175c1,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.3371157%405 W · 306 L+40.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.