TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of T1, Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,637,821
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,889,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,637,821 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x622a…2b59backed Karmine Corp2c122,334$2,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.2352.9%1 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid+185.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb242…4312backed Karmine Corp8c120,801$9,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,910.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a2…353abacked Karmine Corp15c99,197$15,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,215.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Karmine Corp13c84,035$10,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,924.5622451.8%116 W · 108 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9078…fb78backed Karmine Corp5c80,002$4,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,026.225040%20 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+28.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Karmine Corp13c64,999$8,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,449.911,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Karmine Corp5c38,433$1,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.111,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Karmine Corp11c28,000$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,09043442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Karmine Corp4c25,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9938624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88e7…7b50backed Karmine Corp12c20,752$2,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,473.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Karmine Corp13c15,927$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,070.56131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Karmine Corp13c15,829$2,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.731,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Karmine Corp14c15,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1001,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Karmine Corp13c15,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95090348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Karmine Corp2c14,818$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.966297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Karmine Corp13c14,131$1,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,837.0212642.9%54 W · 72 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf184…c2d7backed Karmine Corp14c12,244$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.214553.1%77 W · 68 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Karmine Corp3c10,700$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35767549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked Karmine Corp12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20049541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Karmine Corp14c10,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Karmine Corp10c9,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89032234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Karmine Corp15c8,007$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.663944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Karmine Corp14c7,777$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.781,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ff…473dbacked Karmine Corp13c7,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9502142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Karmine Corp8c6,958$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.21,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Karmine Corp15c6,767$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.041,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Karmine Corp14c6,500$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91059554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9cf…c8b9backed Karmine Corp5c6,343$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.6917939.1%70 W · 109 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Karmine Corp13c5,750$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.861,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Karmine Corp7c5,095$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.081,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dc…28c6backed Karmine Corp2c5,037$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Karmine Corp16c4,826$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.162,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Karmine Corp15c4,500$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.515543.9%68 W · 87 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Karmine Corp7c4,030$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.4185442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Karmine Corp13c3,846$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.971,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Karmine Corp14c3,701$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.554529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Karmine Corp7c3,629$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.511,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d94…eb52backed Karmine Corp13c3,531$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46032345.5%147 W · 176 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd982…0730backed Karmine Corp14c3,515$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26c6…1e14backed Karmine Corp13c3,204$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.5528350.2%142 W · 141 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Karmine Corp5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15042924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Karmine Corp13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8579…185fbacked Karmine Corp13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.999046.7%42 W · 48 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Karmine Corp6c2,970$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.189420.2%19 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Karmine Corp12c2,939$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.8369841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Karmine Corp5c2,930$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.491,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Karmine Corp8c2,753$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.9329038.6%112 W · 178 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Karmine Corp13c2,749$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.421,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Karmine Corp14c2,570$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.4689050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4702…5d04backed Karmine Corp14c2,541$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.744045%18 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Karmine Corp14c2,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35034651.2%177 W · 169 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Karmine Corp3c2,491$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7769741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Karmine Corp2c2,346$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2240232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…21d7backed Karmine Corp7c2,307$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.495932.2%19 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Karmine Corp9c2,056$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4740637.7%153 W · 253 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Karmine Corp2c2,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3647047.4%223 W · 247 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Karmine Corp1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Karmine Corp13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603345.5%15 W · 18 L+8.1wins+0.25per pick21cpaid+158.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x179d…26abbacked Karmine Corp13c1,948$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.6553829.9%161 W · 377 L-19.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Karmine Corp13c1,867$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.7419748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Karmine Corp14c1,800$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Karmine Corp14c1,790$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.62,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2248…bc0ebacked Karmine Corp14c1,786$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25019745.2%89 W · 108 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed Karmine Corp14c1,429$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Karmine Corp9c1,380$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6820450.5%103 W · 101 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x915e…a8fdbacked Karmine Corp3c1,369$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Karmine Corp15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003141.9%13 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+32.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Karmine Corp3c1,315$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4021233%70 W · 142 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Karmine Corp10c1,298$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.692,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a9c…f546backed Karmine Corp16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003066.7%20 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Karmine Corp16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012843%55 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…b135backed Karmine Corp6c1,200$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758237.8%31 W · 51 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x971d…19bcbacked Karmine Corp6c1,167$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6102…1913backed Karmine Corp9c1,161$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.499460.6%57 W · 37 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Karmine Corp11c1,154$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.941,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Karmine Corp13c1,150$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.586251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Karmine Corp12c1,138$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.623152.4%121 W · 110 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0f8…6b50backed Karmine Corp14c1,100$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15412931.8%41 W · 88 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Karmine Corp14c1,072$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0822452.7%118 W · 106 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Karmine Corp3c1,070$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.761487.4%11 W · 137 L+0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Karmine Corp14c1,050$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14735442.1%149 W · 205 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6660…172bbacked Karmine Corp9c1,050$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid+30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8faa…e76abacked Karmine Corp3c1,044$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366943.5%30 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4377…74c2backed Karmine Corp7c1,012$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.846752.2%35 W · 32 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Karmine Corp16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16017339.3%68 W · 105 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc20…8c98backed Karmine Corp2c1,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210253.9%55 W · 47 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed Karmine Corp15c992.29$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6552743.5%229 W · 298 L+32.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59fc…5054backed Karmine Corp14c962.5$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab65…1f0dbacked Karmine Corp5c870$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.166643.9%29 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Karmine Corp14c800.79$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1128544.9%128 W · 157 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf133…928dbacked Karmine Corp13c790$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.75731.6%18 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90e7…ac8ebacked Karmine Corp13c784.98$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0514442.4%61 W · 83 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Karmine Corp12c769.82$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Karmine Corp13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030621.2%65 W · 241 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa245…2152backed Karmine Corp13c769.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006939.1%27 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Karmine Corp14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,13143.1%487 W · 644 L+0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83d…3324backed Karmine Corp14c700$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Karmine Corp13c699.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9341343.8%181 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Karmine Corp11c676.66$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4352045%234 W · 286 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Karmine Corp15c600$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9021150.7%107 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.