NBA · resolved market
Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2840af687d7bfe2bd2f062960f30940781c758abe7787a58f9e6f9c7a97fb01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 40c | 1,285$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.01 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 40c | 1,215$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.34 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked No | 40c | 1,204$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.16 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 60c | 1,134$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.29 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 60c | 1,084$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.94 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab65…4a03backed No | 44c | 424.25$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.42 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 54c | 163$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 61c | 116.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed Yes | 72c | 69.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…d38ebacked No | 37c | 63.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 29c | 59.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes | 61c | 49.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 47c | 40.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Yes | 33c | 40.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e8…ffcabacked Yes | 53c | 36.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Yes | 52c | 24.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 47c | 21.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed Yes | 65c | 18.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
- Alexandre Sarr: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Alexandre Sarr: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Bub Carrington: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Bub Carrington: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-15.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-16.5)Lakers won
- Wizards vs. LakersLakers won
- Wizards vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Wizards vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.