NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4effc596b28085c41dc8dca18b3f0747b9e5c0fa0c54e6063c3c46d4032b4d03

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $36,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,592 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over	51c	10,593$5,397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,397.1	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Over	52c	9,977$5,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,187.79	492	44.3%218 W · 274 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	49c	4,895$2,398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,496.33	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Under	48c	4,104$1,970 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,134.22	416	49.8%207 W · 209 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Under	48c	2,592$1,244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,347.63	316	43.4%137 W · 179 L	-18.0wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Under	49c	2,000$980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020	256	41.4%106 W · 150 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under	49c	1,970$965 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,004.71	870	49.3%429 W · 441 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Over	53c	1,859$985 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$985.05	649	44.7%290 W · 359 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	13c	1,327$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.2	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Under	48c	1,000$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520	387	50.4%195 W · 192 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Under	49c	985.16$483 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$502.43	163	46.6%76 W · 87 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce0…f955backed Over	51c	980$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.8	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed Under	47c	838.34$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$444.32	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	48c	831.23$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$432.24	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Under	48c	820.85$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$426.84	183	49.2%90 W · 93 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4efc…6391backed Under	47c	800$376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under	48c	738.77$355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.16	389	46%179 W · 210 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	50c	565.39$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.7	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over	11c	463.37$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.81	522	30.3%158 W · 364 L	+20.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Under	48c	458.08$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238.18	474	36.7%174 W · 300 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	49c	453.5$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.44	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Under	58c	437.14$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.98	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	52c	400$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Over	51c	392.1$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.07	208	46.6%97 W · 111 L	-9.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Under	47c	300$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159	194	35.1%68 W · 126 L	-10.4wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	54c	297.64$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.98	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under	47c	251.41$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.49	492	49.8%245 W · 247 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Over	47c	224.14$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.49	142	43%61 W · 81 L	-7.8wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Under	47c	214.56$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.72	155	43.9%68 W · 87 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	54c	207.89$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.16	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under	48c	205.21$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.71	521	46.6%243 W · 278 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under	48c	205.21$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.71	434	47.5%206 W · 228 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under	47c	191.79$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.65	686	45.5%312 W · 374 L	-22.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked Over	52c	190.36$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.99	337	48.1%162 W · 175 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59ce…6f07backed Under	47c	180$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.4	213	47.9%102 W · 111 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	48c	177.02$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.74	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	51c	155.65$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.63	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under	46c	150.14$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.08	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	47c	149$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.97	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad31…1c1dbacked Over	53c	139.54$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.96	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Under	50c	137.9$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.95	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	52c	133.11$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.95	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under	47c	126.99$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.31	224	53.1%119 W · 105 L	+29.4wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	10c	122.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	656	30.2%198 W · 458 L	-86.7wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xaa04…796bbacked Over	53c	120.47$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.43	56	51.8%29 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x406d…5298backed Over	54c	108.64$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.11	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Under	48c	102.61$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.36	660	46.4%306 W · 354 L	-21.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	533	39.6%211 W · 322 L	-39.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Over	51c	99.49$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.23	498	52.6%262 W · 236 L	+15.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Under	50c	81.52$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.76	238	40.8%97 W · 141 L	-16.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over	53c	68.95$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.55	452	51.1%231 W · 221 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf2d…e660backed Over	54c	60.2$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.51	113	43.4%49 W · 64 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…4648backed Over	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	166	51.2%85 W · 81 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Under	48c	56.29$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.27	193	48.2%93 W · 100 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under	49c	47.67$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.31	813	49.4%402 W · 411 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7cd…e98dbacked Over	52c	45.58$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	95	45.3%43 W · 52 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under	45c	43.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.83	1,084	50%542 W · 542 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb7…d873backed Over	57c	43.07$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.63	122	45.9%56 W · 66 L	-6.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c2b…c1a3backed Under	48c	41.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.34	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+26%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	47c	40.7$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.46	1,399	46.4%649 W · 750 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	43c	38$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.66	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Over	52c	37.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	332	51.2%170 W · 162 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Under	63c	36.59$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.6	369	49.6%183 W · 186 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Under	49c	34.48$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.58	327	52.9%173 W · 154 L	+11.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over	51c	32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	1,322	49.9%660 W · 662 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under	49c	26.61$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.44	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	49c	26.13$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Under	45c	24.08$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.24	378	53.4%202 W · 176 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ca…e04dbacked Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	71	53.5%38 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over	51c	19.7$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6da7…762abacked Over	52c	19.52$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd80…7503backed Over	54c	19.36$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Wizards vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5this page
1H Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Lakers won
1H Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Alexandre Sarr: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 11.5No won
Alexandre Sarr: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 29.5No won
Bilal Coulibaly: Assists O/U 0.5No won
Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Bub Carrington: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Bub Carrington: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5No won
LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Spread: Lakers (-15.5)Lakers won
Spread: Lakers (-16.5)Lakers won
Wizards vs. LakersLakers won
Wizards vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
Wizards vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
Wizards vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
Wizards vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Wizards vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event