Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2ad62a55333a559f736cf2e224b30d78d95e226ece4fc312c7bed19c49bd6ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 1c | 3,412$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 1,575$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 80c | 922.66$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.36 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 12c | 792.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…bbc3backed Yes | 7c | 527.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 75c | 471.82$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.56 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 316.63$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 10c | 299.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 24c | 253.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 20c | 247.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 173.62$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 11c | 157.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 147.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 23c | 146.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 29c | 104.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 24c | 101.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 10c | 99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 81.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 79.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 26c | 76.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 22c | 70.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 67c | 69.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 20c | 68.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 68.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 62.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ae…7390backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 22c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 59.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 37c | 58.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 57.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 57.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 33c | 57.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3224…dc4dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…9bd0backed Yes | 27c | 54.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 21c | 54.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 51.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 27c | 46.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 32c | 46.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 27c | 44.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 27c | 44.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 66c | 39.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 36.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 33.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 25.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 79c | 24.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.