Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb728e243caab3b7cb041d0a184a8707f1a5babd49ead0ee5787eb4e0087b9452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 2c | 1,767$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 810.8$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 34c | 517.06$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.26 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 475.6$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 60c | 424.32$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.81 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 353.8$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed No | 63c | 347.96$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.54 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 20c | 309.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed No | 54c | 299.51$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.15 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 274$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 271.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed Yes | 64c | 266.09$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 260.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 59c | 235.74$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 219.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 56c | 196.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 62c | 194.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 22c | 192.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 30c | 186$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 185.27$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 43c | 180.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 178.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.67 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 35c | 170.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 160.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 154.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbe…84d1backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 146.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 68c | 145.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 143.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 128.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 31c | 128$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 127.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 55c | 124.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…92d5backed No | 62c | 122.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 41c | 120.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 68c | 117.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 116$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 44c | 114.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 55c | 113.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 41c | 108.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 22c | 104.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 102.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 57c | 99.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 99.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 49c | 98.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 25c | 85.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 30c | 82.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 46c | 81.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 42c | 80.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked Yes | 64c | 80.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 31c | 79.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdd…e7b3backed Yes | 32c | 79.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 76c | 77.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 75.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 46c | 73.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 74c | 73.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 70.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 73c | 70.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 30c | 68.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 58c | 68.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…86bebacked No | 38c | 65.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 64.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 31c | 57.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 50c | 56.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 55c | 55.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 55.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 48c | 51.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 74c | 50.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 43c | 50.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 48c | 49.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…8f59backed No | 68c | 49.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 48.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 47.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…171ebacked Yes | 53c | 47.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed No | 44c | 46.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…3fdfbacked No | 64c | 45.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 45.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a6…9351backed Yes | 52c | 43.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked No | 64c | 41.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 46c | 40.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 78c | 39.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 59c | 38.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…9ffcbacked No | 32c | 35.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 48c | 35.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 60c | 33.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 31.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.