Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33ea88077138f00134054ab8698dcd04b9b66d63cf0c49897a333096c9c27a75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,775$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000f…dc35backed Yes | 32c | 1,061$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 784.14$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 677.73$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 28c | 628.73$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.46 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 24c | 530.04$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.14 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 475.6$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 28c | 332.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 271.27$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 16c | 229.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 23c | 203.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 201.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 27c | 195.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 188.94$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0984…5933backed Yes | 29c | 172.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 169.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 151.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 145.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 28c | 142.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 35c | 141.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 138.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…1118backed No | 73c | 135$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…92d5backed No | 73c | 131.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 22c | 131.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 34c | 129$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Yes | 31c | 127.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 19c | 123.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 18c | 119.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…bbc3backed Yes | 19c | 114.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 20c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 109.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 27c | 109.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…9bd0backed Yes | 37c | 107.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 105.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 103$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 96.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 33c | 88.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed No | 68c | 84.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed Yes | 18c | 81.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 80.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 77c | 77.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 32c | 77.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 45c | 77.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 30c | 75.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 44c | 72.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 71.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 30c | 70.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 69.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…73cfbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 74c | 65.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 64.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 79c | 63.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 78c | 62.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 62.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 69c | 61.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 30c | 60.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 59.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…3fdfbacked Yes | 24c | 59.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 26c | 58.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 20c | 56.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 62c | 51.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 70c | 50.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 47.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 45.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 43.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed No | 49c | 42.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 40.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 25c | 40.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 35.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 35.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 32c | 35.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 31c | 34.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d0…1845backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 33.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 37c | 29.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 36c | 28.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d99…9a97backed Yes | 45c | 27.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked No | 71c | 26.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 26.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e70…c53ebacked Yes | 50c | 20.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.