TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,719
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,962

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,719 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes57c1,638$926 inWon+$711.281,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No43c1,500$650 inLost-$6501,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes50c400$200 inWon+$20023850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed No50c200$100 inLost-$10052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes58c144.48$84 inWon+$60.684,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No44c111.34$49 inLost-$48.692,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No50c100$50 inLost-$501,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf48e…1e01backed No42c100$42 inLost-$4210444.2%46 W · 58 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked No50c100$50 inLost-$5043447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes62c68.34$42 inWon+$25.9724038.3%92 W · 148 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No38c64.4$24 inLost-$24.475,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No45c60.45$27 inLost-$26.951,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1fe…e78cbacked No42c27.26$11 inLost-$11.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Yes57c18.78$11 inWon+$8.0783158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes58c17.37$10 inWon+$7.392058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.