NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39d9f1c47fd3d57b81cd8421b14298d0d7be5ca5bea98384e81f119dcb04f0ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed Nuggets | 42c | 13,116$5,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,607.21 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6505…b9d4backed Nuggets | 42c | 8,348$3,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,841.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc834…394bbacked Nuggets | 42c | 8,224$3,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,769.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab23…60b1backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 7,780$4,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,512.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…d497backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 7,769$4,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,506.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f2…77f0backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 7,740$4,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,489.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5d…991abacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 7,575$4,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,393.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccbb…aa6dbacked Nuggets | 42c | 6,260$2,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,630.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…7238backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 4,737$2,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,747.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc332…13c8backed Nuggets | 42c | 4,614$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,676.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 3,826$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.09 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…0bdebacked Nuggets | 42c | 3,810$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Nuggets | 62c | 3,291$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.97 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…dc68backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 3,239$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7566…8ab3backed Nuggets | 42c | 3,181$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb7…db8dbacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 3,164$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29b…2b3abacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 2,754$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f48…8e34backed Nuggets | 42c | 2,646$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fc…ca19backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 2,379$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6db…7d7abacked Nuggets | 42c | 2,347$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…1a86backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 2,245$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…2e19backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 2,175$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Nuggets | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…40f7backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 1,516$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…0b75backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 1,318$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a9…0364backed Nuggets | 42c | 1,134$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Nuggets | 44c | 1,036$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.07 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…f4b2backed Nuggets | 42c | 1,031$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9e…59e4backed Nuggets | 42c | 891$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets | 42c | 877.19$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.71 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Trail Blazers | 17c | 871$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bc…0cefbacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 625$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 60c | 568.54$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Trail Blazers | 57c | 530$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 506.98$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.98 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 425.19$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.83 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 35c | 424.24$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Trail Blazers | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…c76fbacked Nuggets | 40c | 345.13$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.08 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…0bfabacked Nuggets | 39c | 303.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.24 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Trail Blazers | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Nuggets | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Trail Blazers | 57c | 258.91$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Nuggets | 41c | 250.65$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.88 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Nuggets | 40c | 226.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Trail Blazers | 62c | 194$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets | 42c | 179.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Trail Blazers | 60c | 167.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 163.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 42c | 119.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Nuggets | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Trail Blazers | 62c | 97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Trail Blazers | 60c | 91.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…f827backed Trail Blazers | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…4f7fbacked Trail Blazers | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Trail Blazers | 42c | 68.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 63.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Nuggets | 45c | 51.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Nuggets | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Nuggets | 43c | 46.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b728backed Trail Blazers | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…f9c0backed Trail Blazers | 38c | 30.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f8…c493backed Nuggets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets | 64c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Nuggets | 40c | 25.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-0.5)Nuggets won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
- Nuggets vs. Trail BlazersNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.