NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39f3db03c1ad0069adc498d970192601e956d7347ef09a9e7a4af23ec3e8b5c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 53c | 14,773$7,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,829.88 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 52c | 9,438$4,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,907.63 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 48c | 8,650$4,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,498 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 48c | 6,299$3,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,286.88 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 4,640$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,445.86 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 48c | 3,763$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,962.91 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…db9dbacked Under | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 3,293$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 2,930$2,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 47c | 2,614$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.51 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 47c | 1,966$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.83 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 1,946$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.51 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Under | 54c | 1,866$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 47c | 1,735$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.88 | 331 | 46.2%153 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 1,228$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.94 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.81 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ff…d7afbacked Over | 48c | 593.46$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 586$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.72 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 54c | 499.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Under | 7c | 486.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Under | 53c | 404.65$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.36 | 342 | 48.8%167 W · 175 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 47c | 396.82$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.99 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…e800backed Over | 48c | 303.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.76 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 47c | 299.78$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.88 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x66c4…2852backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Under | 53c | 197.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 226 | 46.9%106 W · 120 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 12c | 197.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 174.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41bd…4797backed Over | 48c | 160.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…ba64backed Over | 48c | 130.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 51c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Over | 48c | 125.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…0e74backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…c578backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 52c | 102.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Under | 53c | 93.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871b…b344backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 47c | 70.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 54c | 62.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 44c | 55.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc6…31d3backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…a1e4backed Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Over | 48c | 30.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 139 | 45.3%63 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9d…3695backed Over | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…c759backed Over | 48c | 26.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399e…607bbacked Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfef9…67afbacked Under | 53c | 24.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…78b8backed Under | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…702fbacked Over | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 48c | 21.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…3ebfbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 242.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-0.5)Nuggets won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
- Nuggets vs. Trail BlazersNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.