NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cdb8f604f53083c952c59ca5cbd23c7c47420e8e616bdca652194028fb002fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 53c | 6,031$3,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,847 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 47c | 3,943$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.21 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 1,936$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.15 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 55c | 533.17$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.12 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 45c | 340$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 293.94$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 229.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 194.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 50c | 109.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 54c | 99.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 49c | 89.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 88.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 51c | 87.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 81.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc83…c024backed Over | 55c | 76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 75.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd2…1b21backed Under | 44c | 59.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 50c | 57.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…61debacked Under | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 48.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Under | 47c | 42.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Over | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 54c | 40.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 232 | 49.6%115 W · 117 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 25.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 45c | 22.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 55c | 21.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…dd4dbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-0.5)Nuggets won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
- Nuggets vs. Trail BlazersNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.