AI · resolved market
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ea7f5fce6c11fb72617720d12661c20808b5698eaff3d96311ee73b9c2e09e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 611.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 10c | 609$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 73c | 523.04$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.58 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…e3c8backed No | 25c | 400.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…4868backed No | 14c | 352.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…df2ebacked Yes | 79c | 307.57$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 10c | 272.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 244.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 10c | 225$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…9240backed Yes | 76c | 196.75$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 195$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 12c | 168.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 18c | 167.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 56c | 164.4$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 10c | 142.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a52…d74cbacked Yes | 71c | 141.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 8c | 137$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 18c | 130$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 128.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb92…68a4backed No | 33c | 122.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 122$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 95.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 18c | 93.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 15c | 81.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes | 66c | 74.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…81bcbacked Yes | 76c | 65.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 63.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…e563backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…9a97backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…dda2backed No | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…2179backed Yes | 75c | 50.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0f71backed Yes | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…e987backed Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 60c | 17.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?this page
- Will any other model be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?No won
- Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.