TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,228 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under76c3,428$2,591 inWon+$837.3612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Over10c1,202$119 inLost-$119.4433515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over37c999.94$370 inLost-$369.982,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over27c962.63$260 inLost-$259.9165549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under73c764.25$558 inWon+$206.514,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over28c694.28$191 inLost-$191.424,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over27c407.94$110 inLost-$110.143,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfe…bfb7backed Over14c403.62$56 inLost-$55.992924.1%7 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over38c399.97$152 inLost-$151.991,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under78c237.31$185 inWon+$52.631,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under73c235.04$172 inWon+$63.168,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under63c159.75$100 inWon+$59.7594648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff4…d735backed Over26c141.96$37 inLost-$36.911338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick21cpaid+67.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over19c103.27$20 inLost-$19.6733032.7%108 W · 222 L-22.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over32c100$32 inLost-$321,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Under63c85.29$54 inWon+$31.4410343.7%45 W · 58 L-9.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Under70c69.34$48 inWon+$20.9444648.7%217 W · 229 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under63c44.81$28 inWon+$16.7329354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Over35c42.86$15 inLost-$1524646.7%115 W · 131 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over36c28.93$10 inLost-$10.425,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under74c25.91$19 inWon+$6.7457548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc1…b855backed Under74c21.84$16 inWon+$5.743548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Under63c20.95$13 inWon+$7.746946.3%217 W · 252 L-25.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under77c18.02$14 inWon+$4.1169447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Under75c14$11 inWon+$3.56355.6%35 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.