TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,310

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,322 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals57c6,335$3,604 inWon+$2,731.0311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox43c4,599$1,985 inLost-$1,984.9912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox43c1,086$467 inLost-$466.983,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Boston Red Sox44c1,003$436 inLost-$436.3475344.1%332 W · 421 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals65c506$331 inWon+$175.268,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals59c288.96$170 inWon+$118.898,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Kansas City Royals46c263.83$121 inWon+$142.471,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Boston Red Sox43c213.95$92 inLost-$9259549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox23c129.37$30 inLost-$29.769,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Boston Red Sox44c112$49 inLost-$49.281,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Boston Red Sox44c51.02$22 inLost-$22.451,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Boston Red Sox42c47.98$20 inLost-$20.1532550.5%164 W · 161 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Boston Red Sox43c30$13 inLost-$12.955847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals71c28$20 inWon+$8.12,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb13…d09bbacked Kansas City Royals56c24.68$14 inWon+$10.861752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Boston Red Sox42c24.32$10 inLost-$10.2169447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Boston Red Sox42c24$10 inLost-$10.0846952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.