TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,442 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under67c4,581$3,065 inWon+$1,515.2210,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over32c4,213$1,348 inLost-$1,348.221,94753.1%1,033 W · 914 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over37c1,329$487 inLost-$487.329,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over50c1,230$611 inLost-$611.093,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over51c1,051$533 inLost-$5334,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under47c1,020$478 inWon+$542.278,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under42c604.59$256 inWon+$348.984,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under39c460$179 inWon+$280.61,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under62c441.42$275 inWon+$16675544.2%334 W · 421 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under65c425.4$275 inWon+$150.3212,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over34c359$123 inLost-$123.251,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under43c330$142 inWon+$188.18,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under49c326.86$160 inWon+$166.71,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under63c279.54$176 inWon+$104.0182741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over47c139.15$66 inLost-$66.0711,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over38c113.23$43 inLost-$43.056,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over52c101.92$53 inLost-$5333032.7%108 W · 222 L-22.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under71c78.17$55 inWon+$22.6757548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over30c71.66$21 inLost-$21.356,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Under49c61.25$30 inWon+$31.2524646.7%115 W · 131 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Over38c42.37$16 inLost-$16.11,37454.2%745 W · 629 L+16.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over69c40.88$28 inLost-$28.378,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under64c40$26 inWon+$14.42,54645.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L-74.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f0…9091backed Under72c40$29 inWon+$11.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Under65c24$15 inWon+$8.5255847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over61c23$14 inLost-$14.031,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.