MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb66cca50309ed1b8aaa798f125326e07f1cdc60f081682b08ba84d5eb96abb76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 3,155$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.61 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 47c | 2,161$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 46c | 1,088$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.44 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 861.88$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 742.78$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 612.29$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 404$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 395.9$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.66 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 276.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…c451backed Under | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over | 46c | 216.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 55c | 192$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0b…4e72backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 149$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 148.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 59c | 84.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 37c | 79.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 61c | 66.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 58.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 43c | 46.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 31c | 41.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 41.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 29c | 35.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 56c | 34.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 36c | 27.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 56c | 22.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 59c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.