MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e4d8e4339fc4cbeab6284d7424bd070d8dd6ccf7e093f3fed3964b42a367f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 21,937$16,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,152.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 17,033$4,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,502.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 1,668$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 1,580$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.16 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 1,359$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.58 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 1,281$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.15 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 1,233$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.44 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 855.22$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.79 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 840$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.8 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 667.14$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.33 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 650.9$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Kansas City Royals | 70c | 595.02$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.38 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Kansas City Royals | 68c | 535.44$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.28 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 473.53$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 424$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 358.59$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 317.06$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.81 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.69 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 307.25$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.35 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 262$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 260$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Kansas City Royals | 68c | 198$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.22 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Boston Red Sox | 31c | 155.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 153$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 124.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 112.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 93.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 93.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Boston Red Sox | 31c | 92.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e7…c87fbacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 83.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 67.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Kansas City Royals | 68c | 62.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 57.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 48.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Kansas City Royals | 71c | 40.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 32.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Kansas City Royals | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 29.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 28.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 24.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…b855backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 24.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.