MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x054e65848ccce1a749318a069717b01c8dd267c7da1d23b1856b7ebf36ac9a0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 25,587$18,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,703.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 19,029$5,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,266.6 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 6,801$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 3,032$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.14 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Kansas City Royals | 25c | 2,923$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.53 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 1,628$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.23 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 1,499$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 1,317$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 1,076$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 999.98$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 879.53$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.97 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 612$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Boston Red Sox | 79c | 490.07$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Kansas City Royals | 24c | 475$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 24c | 397.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 299$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 295$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Boston Red Sox | 71c | 288$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 239$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 192.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 151$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Boston Red Sox | 70c | 133$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 125.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 106.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 102.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 100.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 73.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…cd8abacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 65.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Kansas City Royals | 24c | 59.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 55.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Kansas City Royals | 25c | 54.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 49.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…b855backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 45.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 44.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 24c | 44.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Kansas City Royals | 25c | 43.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 33.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 31.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Boston Red Sox | 77c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 21.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…f943backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Boston Red Sox | 75c | 13.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.