MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab50439973a5160cf2b1bb4e12a8c4169d1cd61746850f92743ed7d95f934fb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef1b…8697backed No | 52c | 11,000$5,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,266.68 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 51c | 3,212$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,563.13 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 47c | 2,992$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.05 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 10c | 2,146$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.09 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Yes | 13c | 1,968$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 49c | 1,900$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Yes | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 72c | 835.49$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.24 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Yes | 47c | 819.15$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 48c | 768.08$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 51c | 682.92$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.29 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Yes | 55c | 549.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 73c | 298.16$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Yes | 47c | 276.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 36c | 184.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 48c | 182$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 48c | 141.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 50c | 125.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Yes | 47c | 80.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 46c | 80.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed No | 50c | 79.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 52c | 67.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Yes | 52c | 48.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x903e…2829backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed No | 74c | 40.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…0dfdbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 73c | 34.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Yes | 51c | 27.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…d6c4backed Yes | 53c | 19.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royalsthis page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.