MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d4bacace8fe22ebcba058fac518f1650e6ee0e776591bfdfacf50f7e1f689e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 57c | 26,886$15,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,324.75 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 43c | 23,500$10,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,395 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 44c | 5,489$2,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,073.9 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 75c | 2,398$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 57c | 2,333$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.14 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 1,867$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 44c | 1,459$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.21 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 1,205$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 57c | 1,193$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.99 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 32c | 1,168$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.52 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 1,154$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.07 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 996.72$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.76 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 897.62$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 43c | 848.4$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.59 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 43c | 815$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.55 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 736.65$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 55c | 633.49$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.23 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 562.74$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 66c | 242.79$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 15c | 226.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.64 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b4d2backed Under | 44c | 218.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 43c | 201$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Under | 53c | 199.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 176.04$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 49c | 144$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 41c | 140$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 55c | 122$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Under | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 48c | 115.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 50c | 114$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 33c | 103.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…b45fbacked Over | 58c | 102$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 53c | 100.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…fa5ebacked Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +60%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 58c | 92.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 58c | 76.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 54c | 73.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 47c | 71.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 46c | 68.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 57c | 65.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 46c | 51.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 55c | 48.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Over | 57c | 46.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 54c | 46.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Over | 38c | 43.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 55c | 39.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Over | 58c | 38.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…f8c0backed Under | 42c | 38.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 52c | 28.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked Under | 43c | 28.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Over | 58c | 27.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…2dadbacked Over | 58c | 26.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 25.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…7d7cbacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 58c | 23.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 47c | 22.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 56c | 21.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 58c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 51c | 19.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 58c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.