MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2828ab522aad3127f1d8214c07086cf6d4bfca92daea9f9e468a0cbf1e37ce03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 80c | 27,982$22,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,648.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 11,611$3,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,668.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 5,776$3,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,234.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 3,365$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 20c | 3,303$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.52 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 2,731$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Kansas City Royals | 78c | 1,136$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.18 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 1,035$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.09 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 28c | 994.96$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.59 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 23c | 897.89$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 637.5$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 361.79$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 348.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 20c | 345$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals | 71c | 336$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 281.72$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.77 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Kansas City Royals | 79c | 249.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 167.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 134.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Kansas City Royals | 79c | 125.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Kansas City Royals | 79c | 125.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 110.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Boston Red Sox | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Kansas City Royals | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Boston Red Sox | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 86.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 75.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 50.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Kansas City Royals | 79c | 41.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Kansas City Royals | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Kansas City Royals | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 31.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Kansas City Royals | 72c | 25.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 78c | 24.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Kansas City Royals | 79c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…1bf1backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.