Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf450abe2a696e5578e932f95abc616c3fa50037e101614caeeeeff6aad209ebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 767.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 350.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 37c | 341.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.15 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 60c | 332.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbb…04febacked No | 55c | 273.7$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 266.2$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 253.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…8900backed Yes | 48c | 249.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 28c | 229.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.62 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 72c | 221$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…80d2backed Yes | 8c | 218.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…d1b6backed Yes | 50c | 205.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…a387backed Yes | 48c | 198.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd70c…7cedbacked Yes | 45c | 188.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 177.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…fb01backed No | 59c | 170.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 54c | 168.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 61c | 150.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 50c | 150.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 150.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 27c | 149.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 34c | 148.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 147.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 67c | 144.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 39c | 141.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 135.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 47c | 130.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 52c | 124.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 48c | 119.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 117.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 112.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 106.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 25c | 105.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 52c | 105.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 103.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 103.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 89.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 48c | 89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…f7abbacked No | 49c | 88.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…d0f6backed Yes | 68c | 85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 52c | 80.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 53c | 79.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 45c | 77.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 74.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 57c | 70.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 52c | 67.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 64.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 59.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 57c | 55.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 54.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 61c | 54.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 42c | 51.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 50.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 54c | 50.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 50.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 50.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 48.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 46.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes | 54c | 43.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 54c | 43.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 43.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 46c | 43.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 44c | 42.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 33c | 42.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 68c | 41.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 32c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 42c | 35.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 45c | 35.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 47c | 34.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 44c | 34.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 34.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 40c | 33.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 32.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42bc…8d22backed Yes | 48c | 32.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 49c | 31.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 65c | 26.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.