TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes63c767.33$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.665,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c592$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x997e…7e58backed Yes74c335.65$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.082744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes14c309.8$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0345130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c263.81$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x668b…8900backed Yes38c260.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes31c226.29$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2417241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No13c209$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.532,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes10c202.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.771,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes6c192.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.0331319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes36c170.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.551,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No12c167.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.022,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes11c163.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.3811334.5%39 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x01d0…7b12backed Yes36c151.18$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.993135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes19c150$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.341,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No66c144.63$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…8b39backed Yes11c139.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.372128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+74.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No75c132.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No76c132.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10051762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No49c129.22$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.214,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No67c124.47$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No45c120.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.214,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c115.84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes35c115.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3917553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes36c108.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4546240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No49c106.25$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No64c105.46$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes17c101.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No73c101.26$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.433,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes33c99.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9960519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c97.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.77,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No50c95.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2753525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes32c95.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.014940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No64c93.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1819057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed Yes29c92.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.978737.9%33 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No69c92.41$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.396,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f59…9e40backed Yes28c86.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.546131.1%19 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No53c83.04$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.862,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No64c80.75$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6868645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes32c80.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f24…64b5backed No67c74.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.954040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes36c74.01$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3779040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No53c73.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No70c71.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes17c70.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4227421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes17c68.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6740525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes17c65.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.914332.2%46 W · 97 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+81.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c65.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.383,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c64.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.812,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c62.66$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.735,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd577…7137backed Yes34c61.83$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.83944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes33c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.515843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes31c56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5547538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes63c55.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9761676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xdb8d…0511backed Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.563652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No23c54.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6429717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf993…ad52backed Yes37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.054443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3494…d0f6backed Yes26c51.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.24977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+82.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No75c51.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.523668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368134.6%28 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes27c49.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2632…6475backed Yes29c46.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.23246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes33c44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.481346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes30c43.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.144235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d2…cd83backed Yes35c43.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+187%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No68c42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.563757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No73c41.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.572,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes39c41.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2927130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes38c39.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.499832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No65c36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…e084backed No71c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.852065%13 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick73cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c34.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.429,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc21…f297backed Yes36c33.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.745,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No69c32.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7720958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x671b…a787backed No68c32.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.033971.8%28 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick75cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No74c31.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.472,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No63c31.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes36c30.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8363538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1831124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1867336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a7…5b77backed Yes37c27.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.532733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No59c27.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1150373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No63c26.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.929262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x978d…f975backed No77c26.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick68cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f33…da59backed No80c25.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.585658.9%33 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No73c25.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.525466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.952,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No71c24.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf16…3a05backed No71c23.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0110667%71 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No65c22.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No66c22.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.