Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea069bded7eeee06282d9ae308ab7a3e20b202e3c96b08c9eb62a357abd73d04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 767.33$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 592$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…7e58backed Yes | 74c | 335.65$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 14c | 309.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.03 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 263.81$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…8900backed Yes | 38c | 260.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 31c | 226.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.24 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 13c | 209$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 202.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.77 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 6c | 192.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 36c | 170.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 167.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 11c | 163.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.38 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 36c | 151.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.34 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 66c | 144.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 11c | 139.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.37 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 75c | 132.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 76c | 132.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 129.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 124.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 120.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 115.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 35c | 115.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 108.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 49c | 106.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 105.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 101.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 101.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 97.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 50c | 95.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 32c | 95.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 64c | 93.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 29c | 92.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 92.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 28c | 86.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 83.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 64c | 80.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 32c | 80.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 67c | 74.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 36c | 74.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 53c | 73.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 17c | 70.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 17c | 68.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 17c | 65.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 65.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 64.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 62.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…7137backed Yes | 34c | 61.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 63c | 55.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 54.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…d0f6backed Yes | 26c | 51.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 75c | 51.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 49.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 29c | 46.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 30c | 43.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d2…cd83backed Yes | 35c | 43.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 68c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 41.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 39c | 41.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 34.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc21…f297backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 69c | 32.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 68c | 32.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 31.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 30.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 37c | 27.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 27.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 63c | 26.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…f975backed No | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 80c | 25.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 73c | 25.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 24.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 71c | 23.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 22.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.