MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf498fa25a129eca57b7f772b8167c1c2a7deff3133943deb52dc7f384e875be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 4,178$3,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed New York Yankees | 20c | 3,983$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.15 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Yankees | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 993.35$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 731.23$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.93 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed New York Yankees | 35c | 705.13$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.8 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed New York Yankees | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 34c | 304.81$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 152.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…92c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 136.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked New York Yankees | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 114$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 98.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 34c | 97.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 79.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…9b3abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 26c | 64.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Yankees | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked New York Yankees | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked New York Yankees | 28c | 58.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed New York Yankees | 34c | 58.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Yankees | 20c | 51.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked New York Yankees | 34c | 49.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees | 34c | 40.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 34.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 32.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 28.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 20.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 18.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42fe…b1d0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 14.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.