MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a935c41da9be7293251d991c85e6f7315e55629fd3124b8f3449a2cf2ce982d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 6,827$3,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,633.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed New York Yankees | 38c | 4,361$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.84 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 3,460$2,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 52c | 3,271$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 2,640$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 38c | 2,612$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.28 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 66c | 964.16$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Yankees | 64c | 827.27$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.45 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked New York Yankees | 66c | 600$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 65c | 548.65$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees | 65c | 517.13$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.13 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 497.84$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.67 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed New York Yankees | 65c | 442.09$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.36 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked New York Yankees | 27c | 350$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 283.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.45 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 188.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked New York Yankees | 24c | 165$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 149.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed New York Yankees | 41c | 121.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Yankees | 66c | 116$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 31c | 106.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Yankees | 64c | 104$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…74d2backed New York Yankees | 51c | 94.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 82.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 74.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked New York Yankees | 24c | 70.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Yankees | 49c | 69.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc83…fdd4backed New York Yankees | 52c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 60.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 57.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed New York Yankees | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 52.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 39.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed New York Yankees | 27c | 38.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked New York Yankees | 51c | 36.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef1…e893backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 34.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 33.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed New York Yankees | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 29.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 47c | 28.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed New York Yankees | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…0974backed New York Yankees | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed New York Yankees | 66c | 15.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Yankees | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.