Lol · resolved market
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4f4bf354ea361e1aa2dc98c3682b181fcfd2b7eaf2c49d4dc409f8774f448a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Karmine Corpof SK Gaming, Karmine Corp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $205,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed SK Gaming | 7c | 27,368$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.05 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…d154backed SK Gaming | 6c | 25,108$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.5 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed SK Gaming | 4c | 15,072$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.84 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed SK Gaming | 10c | 10,093$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.65 | 1,468 | 28.9%424 W · 1,044 L | +23.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed SK Gaming | 1c | 9,230$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked SK Gaming | 15c | 7,852$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.87 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed SK Gaming | 14c | 6,252$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.25 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…ff15backed SK Gaming | 5c | 5,935$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.74 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed SK Gaming | 6c | 5,132$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.45 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…e7c8backed SK Gaming | 11c | 5,049$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked SK Gaming | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 459 | 37%170 W · 289 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d86…a6f9backed SK Gaming | 14c | 3,721$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.9 | 274 | 32.5%89 W · 185 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed SK Gaming | 15c | 1,940$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.04 | 679 | 31.8%216 W · 463 L | -31.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf7…e64cbacked SK Gaming | 3c | 1,884$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 242 | 27.7%67 W · 175 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed SK Gaming | 9c | 1,750$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 1,258 | 38.6%485 W · 773 L | -61.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked SK Gaming | 1c | 1,648$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac20…e154backed SK Gaming | 15c | 1,538$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.13 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…f578backed SK Gaming | 7c | 1,500$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked SK Gaming | 15c | 1,477$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.5 | 345 | 36.5%126 W · 219 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked SK Gaming | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 840 | 41%344 W · 496 L | -38.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…ed1fbacked SK Gaming | 9c | 1,099$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 158 | 21.5%34 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…d5cebacked SK Gaming | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae5e…13bebacked SK Gaming | 13c | 999.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 495 | 41.6%206 W · 289 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…528cbacked SK Gaming | 15c | 949$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.35 | 172 | 28.5%49 W · 123 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked SK Gaming | 13c | 808.02$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 756 | 30%227 W · 529 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2960…f49cbacked SK Gaming | 6c | 786.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…d84ebacked SK Gaming | 15c | 764.64$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac8…45c4backed SK Gaming | 7c | 753.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 510 | 44.9%229 W · 281 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked SK Gaming | 5c | 750.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 498 | 41.6%207 W · 291 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked SK Gaming | 14c | 728.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 300 | 35%105 W · 195 L | -21.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed SK Gaming | 11c | 726.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 993 | 38.6%383 W · 610 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked SK Gaming | 10c | 676.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 1,592 | 34%541 W · 1,051 L | -79.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed SK Gaming | 10c | 618.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked SK Gaming | 11c | 540$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 584 | 20.2%118 W · 466 L | -58.1wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98a5…d074backed SK Gaming | 12c | 531.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…64ccbacked SK Gaming | 14c | 501.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 174 | 31%54 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…fca9backed SK Gaming | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b9…e5e8backed SK Gaming | 8c | 472.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed SK Gaming | 6c | 471.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed SK Gaming | 8c | 460.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 1,058 | 23.5%249 W · 809 L | -75.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked SK Gaming | 4c | 403.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…17b1backed SK Gaming | 6c | 380.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed SK Gaming | 6c | 334.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 464 | 36.4%169 W · 295 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…a754backed SK Gaming | 15c | 322.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…b0dabacked SK Gaming | 15c | 316.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…7a60backed SK Gaming | 15c | 314.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd48…8e98backed SK Gaming | 6c | 314.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed SK Gaming | 15c | 310.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 1,593 | 43.8%697 W · 896 L | -74.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked SK Gaming | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed SK Gaming | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 441 | 29.5%130 W · 311 L | -45.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -48%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…af29backed SK Gaming | 5c | 287.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 218 | 19.3%42 W · 176 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed SK Gaming | 14c | 249.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 573 | 49.4%283 W · 290 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed SK Gaming | 10c | 242$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked SK Gaming | 5c | 235.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 229 | 30.6%70 W · 159 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…c88dbacked SK Gaming | 14c | 233.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed SK Gaming | 13c | 220.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed SK Gaming | 10c | 219.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked SK Gaming | 14c | 216.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 422 | 50%211 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa390…c7d9backed SK Gaming | 5c | 215.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked SK Gaming | 11c | 208.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed SK Gaming | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,225 | 49.6%607 W · 618 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed SK Gaming | 14c | 196.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 177 | 39%69 W · 108 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked SK Gaming | 12c | 190.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 348 | 34.2%119 W · 229 L | -39.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92a2…46afbacked SK Gaming | 15c | 189.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…2752backed SK Gaming | 10c | 158.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed SK Gaming | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 584 | 37.2%217 W · 367 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed SK Gaming | 14c | 133.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 288 | 55.9%161 W · 127 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked SK Gaming | 15c | 118.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked SK Gaming | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 573 | 33%189 W · 384 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed SK Gaming | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed SK Gaming | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed SK Gaming | 10c | 99.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed SK Gaming | 14c | 94.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 251 | 51%128 W · 123 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed SK Gaming | 12c | 93.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56af…7527backed SK Gaming | 12c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…133ebacked SK Gaming | 15c | 88.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed SK Gaming | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 760 | 28.9%220 W · 540 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed SK Gaming | 14c | 78.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,643 | 44.4%730 W · 913 L | -42.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonthis page
- Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill?No won
- Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5)Karmine Corp won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 WinnerKarmine Corp won
- LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 WinnerKarmine Corp won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.