Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Toledo Rockets vs. James Madison Dukes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf540ddf3b37c5ccd8e61bf0c57288c9716adaa0ad50d429427237a889af8a43a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madison Dukesof Toledo Rockets, James Madison Dukes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked James Madison Dukes | 70c | 1,841$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.16 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb729…4e2ebacked Toledo Rockets | 24c | 1,639$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Toledo Rockets | 52c | 1,180$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed James Madison Dukes | 50c | 952.79$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.69 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Toledo Rockets | 40c | 596.63$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.48 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed James Madison Dukes | 67c | 555.1$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.36 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked James Madison Dukes | 46c | 504.87$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.54 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed James Madison Dukes | 42c | 428.04$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.19 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked James Madison Dukes | 70c | 423.19$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.41 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed James Madison Dukes | 66c | 312.52$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed James Madison Dukes | 70c | 288.12$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Toledo Rockets | 55c | 280$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.72 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked James Madison Dukes | 70c | 238.37$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed James Madison Dukes | 45c | 201.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.9 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed James Madison Dukes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed James Madison Dukes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…ef0fbacked James Madison Dukes | 48c | 179.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Toledo Rockets | 37c | 173.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Toledo Rockets | 58c | 172.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked James Madison Dukes | 48c | 171.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Toledo Rockets | 27c | 135.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Toledo Rockets | 52c | 115.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Toledo Rockets | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked James Madison Dukes | 66c | 112.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Toledo Rockets | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked James Madison Dukes | 48c | 97.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed James Madison Dukes | 73c | 79.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Toledo Rockets | 54c | 77.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Toledo Rockets | 49c | 75.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Toledo Rockets | 31c | 66.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…9192backed James Madison Dukes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 76cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked James Madison Dukes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed James Madison Dukes | 48c | 54.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Toledo Rockets | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked James Madison Dukes | 69c | 34.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Toledo Rockets | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 309 | 45.6%141 W · 168 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Toledo Rockets | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed James Madison Dukes | 48c | 27.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077a…ec51backed Toledo Rockets | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed James Madison Dukes | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed Toledo Rockets | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed James Madison Dukes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 217 | 46.1%100 W · 117 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toledo Rockets vs. James Madison Dukesthis page
- Toledo Rockets vs. James Madison Dukes: O/U 151.5Under won
- Toledo Rockets vs. James Madison Dukes: O/U 152.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.