Champions League · resolved market
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf752f1f8aff98de83b595efe93e1efaee8dd4e9f03906f29c439ff436aec54bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc919…a162backed Yes | 19c | 10,526$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…6732backed Yes | 20c | 3,202$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…eb32backed Yes | 2c | 2,527$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 21c | 839.69$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.12 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 13c | 750.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 20c | 575$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 13c | 431$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 13c | 311.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…ad31backed Yes | 20c | 277.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 80c | 248.75$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…f2bbbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3264…0de7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…d5b8backed No | 79c | 68.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Yes | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 80c | 55.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 60 | 76.7%46 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…d958backed No | 80c | 55.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 80c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 52.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…2ea7backed Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…b002backed Yes | 20c | 50.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…8a0cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d3fbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2c…c7a7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d9…284ebacked No | 80c | 17.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…c9a0backed No | 78c | 16.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle United FC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?this page
- Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-05?No won
- Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.