TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,426 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed Yes42c1,413$593 inWon+$820.271,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No58c999.99$580 inLost-$5801,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No45c259.77$117 inLost-$117.2626839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cc2…eaefbacked Yes55c221.28$122 inWon+$98.9211056.4%62 W · 48 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No58c172.41$100 inLost-$10097049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Yes56c131.58$73 inWon+$58.41,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e85…788bbacked Yes40c105.68$42 inWon+$63.5915651.9%81 W · 75 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No58c100$58 inLost-$5895260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No58c90.47$53 inLost-$52.5292058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed No44c79$35 inLost-$34.7514452.1%75 W · 69 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No60c71.5$43 inLost-$42.983158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Yes55c54.55$30 inWon+$24.551,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Yes45c54.33$25 inWon+$29.8117151.5%88 W · 83 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No46c46$21 inLost-$20.964,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed No55c45.56$25 inLost-$25.0648751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5b…b58bbacked Yes55c36.36$20 inWon+$16.367640.8%31 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked No43c36$15 inLost-$15.4821937%81 W · 138 L-15.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No45c28$13 inLost-$12.5332866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No58c23.64$14 inLost-$13.7150648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No60c19.79$12 inLost-$11.8789853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No61c19.66$12 inLost-$11.9919555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.