Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7761446d1d53214e6269534c17cc86cd071092ecc7a425cb1f7d2a59df45a23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 10c | 2,516$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.17 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 9c | 872$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 10c | 800$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 14c | 581.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 9c | 399.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…6bbebacked Yes | 77c | 385$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 14c | 362$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 17c | 321.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed Yes | 26c | 318.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 7c | 308.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 295.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b2…1296backed No | 12c | 292.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 16c | 246$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 14c | 208.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 5c | 190.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 190.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 187.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 18c | 185.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -76%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 7c | 171.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed No | 14c | 163$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 76c | 145.75$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 78c | 132$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…b0b8backed No | 16c | 100.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked No | 10c | 100.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 13c | 90.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…c4f7backed No | 13c | 82.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 28c | 36.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 72c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes | 72c | 26.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 70c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?this page
- Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?No won
- Will Amanda Edwards be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?No won
- Will Gretchen Brown be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.