TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,160
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,160 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under49c7,370$3,625 inWon+$3,745.32,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb632…7ec5backed Over52c6,265$3,235 inLost-$3,235.237959.5%47 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c1,197$586 inWon+$610.724,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0298…b9a5backed Over50c1,096$548 inLost-$548.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over2c1,026$23 inLost-$22.5667921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over51c1,014$515 inLost-$514.998,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over24c792.59$193 inLost-$192.971,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Over50c300$150 inLost-$15021749.3%107 W · 110 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5092…fccdbacked Over52c98.99$51 inLost-$5112843.8%56 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Under54c92.59$50 inWon+$42.5915657.7%90 W · 66 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over51c91.33$47 inLost-$46.9652643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under49c68.26$33 inWon+$34.811,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…6831backed Under51c58$30 inWon+$28.42450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Under54c46.3$25 inWon+$21.334556.2%194 W · 151 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59eb…fa33backed Over68c44.12$30 inLost-$309941.4%41 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under50c31$16 inWon+$15.52,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Over50c20$10 inLost-$1038048.7%185 W · 195 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…1dccbacked Over50c20$10 inLost-$1027034.8%94 W · 176 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.