NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99c423cb072cb6708b444f992d5c98c21eedfd2d4a7b6f4a5d76da2461f3c7bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Grizzlies, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Timberwolves | 60c | 1,073$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.33 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Grizzlies | 30c | 1,004$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 40c | 579.55$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves | 67c | 299.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Timberwolves | 66c | 287.69$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce28…51bfbacked Timberwolves | 67c | 243.4$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Grizzlies | 33c | 209.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Timberwolves | 66c | 98.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 427 | 44.5%190 W · 237 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Grizzlies | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Grizzlies | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f32…97c2backed Grizzlies | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Grizzlies | 34c | 58.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Grizzlies | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Grizzlies | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Timberwolves | 63c | 53.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Timberwolves | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Grizzlies | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Timberwolves | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Timberwolves | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9c…aaf9backed Timberwolves | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 68cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Grizzlies vs. TimberwolvesGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.