NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c26f5b662019cca42a87ef5d111463b7270a61b5bc365cf782bd4c54d4bfb1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 14c | 5,202$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.71 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 3,532$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.36 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 1,201$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.27 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,131$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.14 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 48c | 1,099$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.52 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 53c | 552.28$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.71 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 529.5$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.45 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 17c | 435$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.11 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 40c | 416.67$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 27c | 262.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fc…51c6backed Over | 54c | 210$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Over | 53c | 181.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29cb…7f71backed Over | 48c | 128.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Under | 55c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 52c | 89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…0b88backed Over | 60c | 87.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 47c | 72.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Over | 45c | 66.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 56.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…bca7backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…0001backed Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…9659backed Over | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 51c | 31.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. TimberwolvesGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.