NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefbf26911c48f49dba7f9215760151b7dff432faa9523d89691ab4d986567ce4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Under | 69c | 1,478$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.45 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 698.7$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.9 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 634.62$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.56 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed Over | 38c | 499.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 51c | 465.39$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.2 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 373$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 59c | 185$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 36c | 170.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 59c | 168$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 63c | 152$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 59c | 147$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 59c | 128$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 59c | 123$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 60c | 116$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 63c | 114$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 65c | 103$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 101.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 60c | 97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 63c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 46c | 89.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 56c | 86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f32…97c2backed Over | 48c | 85.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 29c | 82.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Under | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over | 41c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Over | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 60c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Over | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Over | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Over | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Over | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…e234backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Over | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Over | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Over | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Over | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Over | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -9.8wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Over | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Over | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Over | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Over | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. TimberwolvesGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.